The Elections Are Over and Markets Are Bumpy. Here’s Why We’re Staying the Course.
The midterm elections are over, and a new Congress will begin its term in January 2027. Whether the results were what you hoped for or not, it’s natural to wonder what comes next for your money.
The honest answer is that time will tell. But I can tell you how I’m thinking about it, and why I’m not changing course.
A Bumpy Week for the Market
If you watched the news last week, you saw some big swings. Stocks jumped the day after the election, then dropped sharply. On November 5, the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, its worst second day after a midterm election in nearly a century.1
Days like that get attention. But it helps to zoom out. Even after that drop, the S&P 500 was still up about 7% for the year.1
What History Tells Us
Elections can bring uncertainty, and markets don’t love uncertainty. Once the votes are counted, some of that uncertainty starts to clear. Historically, that has been good for long-term investors. Since 1938, the S&P 500 has gone up in the 12 months after a midterm election about 95% of the time, with an average gain of about 14%.2
Of course, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Every year is different. But it’s a good reminder that short-term reactions don’t always tell you where things are headed.
The Fundamentals Still Matter Most
With the election behind us, investors can turn their focus back to the economy and the things that drive stock prices over time, like how companies are actually doing. So far, the news there has been solid:
• Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results, 84% beat earnings expectations and 74% beat revenue expectations.3
• If trends hold, the profit margin for S&P 500 companies will be 14.9%, the second-highest since FactSet began tracking it in 2009.3
Ups and Downs Are Normal
Swings like last week’s can feel scary, but they’re part of investing. On average, the stock market drops about 14% at some point during the year. Yet it still finished with a positive return in 34 of the past 45 years.4
Trying to get out and back in at the right time is where many investors get hurt. Over the past 20 years, staying invested in the S&P 500 earned about 11.3% a year. Missing just the 10 best days would have cut that return by more than half.5 And the best days often come right after the worst ones.4 If you sell on a bad day, you may miss the recovery.
If You’re New to Working With Me
Welcome. I’m glad you’re here. If this is your first market dip since we started working together, here’s what I want you to know: your plan was built knowing that days like this would come. Your portfolio is matched to your goals, your timeline and how much risk you’re comfortable with. One bad week doesn’t change any of those things.
You don’t need to do anything when the market swings. If something in your life changes, like your goals or when you’ll need the money, that’s the time to let me know.
If You’re Close to Retirement
When retirement is near, or you’ve just made a big decision like rolling over a 401(k) or taking a pension lump sum, a market drop can feel more personal. That’s understandable. A good plan accounts for the money you’ll need in the next few years, so short-term swings don’t force you to sell at a bad time.
If You’re Thinking About the Long Term
If your goal is to leave something for your children or grandchildren, your time frame may be decades, not days. Looking at it that way, a rough week in November is a small bump on a long road.
Our Strategy Stays the Same
Elections can stir strong feelings. Markets can, too. But my approach doesn’t change with the headlines. We stay focused on what matters: helping you pursue your financial goals with a plan built for the long run.
Want a Second Opinion?
If the recent swings have you wondering whether your current plan is built to handle them, I’d be glad to take a look.
Call 877-997-7113 or visit pereirawm.com to get started.
Sources
1. Yahoo Finance, “Stocks Just Had Their Worst Second Day After a Midterm in Nearly a Century,” November 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stocks-just-had-worst-second-135707606.html
2. Fidelity, “How did midterm elections affect stocks?” 2026. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/2026-midterm-elections-and-stocks
3. FactSet, “Earnings Insight,” November 6, 2026. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_110626A.pdf
4. J.P. Morgan Asset Management, “Navigating Market Volatility,” Guide to Retirement. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/retirement-insights/navigating-market-volatility-retirement-guide/
5. Chase / J.P. Morgan Asset Management, “Reasons to Stay Invested,” data as of June 30, 2026. https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/reasons-to-stay-invested
Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views stated in this material are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.